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(CNN) Official Covid-19 case metrics severely undercount the true number of infections, leaving the United States with a critical blind spot as the most transmissible coronavirus variant yet takes hold.
The Omicron offshoot BA.5 became the dominant variant in the US last week, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the subvariant carries key mutations that help it escape antibodies generated by vaccines and prior infection, aiding its rapid spread.
With that will come “escalating numbers of cases and more hospitalizations,” Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, said on CNNi Monday. “One good thing is it doesn’t appear to be accompanied by the ICU admissions and the deaths as previous variants, but this is definitely concerning.”
But to look at official case counts, it’s hard to tell.
The share of cases that are officially reported is at an “all-time low,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and chief science officer at telehealth company eMed. “There’s no doubt about that.”
Covid-19 cases have been undercounted to some degree throughout the pandemic for reasons including a lack of available tests at some points and asymptomatic cases that may have been missed. But as people increasingly rely on rapid at-home tests — and as attitudes toward the pandemic shift overall — the US hasn’t landed on a reliable way to track transmission levels. CNN
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Before the CDC lifted the requirement for international travelers to test before coming into the country last month, Mina said, it was an “amazing opportunity” to monitor the state of Covid-19 across the US among a group of mostly asymptomatic people. About 5% of travelers were testing positive throughout the month of May, which he says probably translates to at least 1 million new infections every day in the broader US population — 10 times higher than the official count.
Now that BA.5 is here, “we know that there is going to be a wave in the fall — there’s almost no doubt about that — if not before. So you just have to be really cognitive that that is what might happen,” Mina said.
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